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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."