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During a lavish speakeasy-style gathering hosted at Raffles hotel in central London recently, prominent figures of what is left of the Conservative party marked a major magazine's parliamentarian of the year awards.

Given the publication's stance still just about support the Conservatives, even as they confront severe challenges posed by Reform, it was unsurprising that much of the gossip during the upscale reception was about the security of the leader's position was at risk.

Party Tensions Emerge at Awards

James Cleverly, a former leadership contender, couldn’t resist a dig from the stage targeting the obvious aspirations of a fellow frontbencher, a key rival – considered the main challenger.

“Do I seek her position? Am I going to stick the knife between her shoulder blades to take over? No, of course I’m not,” the veteran Tory cabinet minister told the laughing audience while commencing the awards ceremony.

Jenrick, who came second, and has been pitching sharply rightward to counter Reform's influence, did at least manage to chuckle. His strategic moves are far from discreet.

Deadline to Leadership Contest Begins

Months ago, one of the Tory leader’s disgruntled backbenchers set up a countdown clock online of the days left until Conservative rules allow leadership bids. That period concludes this weekend.

From then on, the Tory leader’s critics can formally request to trigger a contest. Revised guidelines established recently raising the required support, meaning 30% of the party’s 119 MPs must endorse, up from 15%, creating a higher bar for those trying to oust her.

Potential Challengers and Backing

But could any putative rivals – primarily Jenrick – persuade the 36 MPs required to start the process? Tory insiders point to previous nomination totals during the last race: twenty-eight initially. “That forms the baseline,” according to insiders.

There is no shortage of Conservative legislators ready to express dissatisfaction with the leader: her approach, her political judgment, her ability to cut through. But, for the most part, they remain cautious regarding repeating of political regicide so soon.

Respite and Election Anxieties

Some Conservative MPs further think her performance at the autumn party conference, unveiling plans of abolishing stamp duty on primary homes, has bought her temporary relief.

“Although dissatisfied with the current leadership but we’ll be very careful about getting rid of her. The public already think we fight like rats in a sack. We should avoid providing any more evidence of that,” one MP said.

This doesn't mean planning has ceased. “Kemi has until May. The local elections are going to be cataclysmic for us. No one will desire to take over before that and have to own the result. But afterwards, we must find a leader who can take us toward renewal,” a frontbench source said.

Polling Figures and Public Perception

The polls already suggest the leader has gained minimal ground with the public over the last year with declining in terms of her personal ratings. With a negative score, she is less popular compared to her rival and another colleague, per recent polling.

Additional research further reveals that Badenoch has convinced just one in eight voters she is a prime minister in waiting. However, the picture is better with party supporters, over half stating she has done a good job as party leader, and only 30% opposing her continuation the party into the next general election.

Upcoming Possibilities and Party Dynamics

Despite mixed feelings among base voters, a general agreement exists within parliamentary ranks that a change is inevitable before the next national vote.

The main division is whether it would better for a spring leadership change and have a chance at stopping Reform’s momentum – or delay until nearer to the general election when Farage might have imploded, and public receptiveness improves to listen to the Tories again.

Widely known that Jenrick thinks he is the right candidate. But his allies say he has no plans to move now, and agrees with those who thinks they should wait until spring.

Other Contenders and Strategies

Some speculate that the party’s potential saviour may end up being somebody with a lower profile (the shadow climate secretary is sometimes suggested) or among newer MPs with less obvious links to the party’s time in power.

Another former candidate, is considered a consensus builder, remaining reserved. Supporters indicate he thinks there is no alternative than current leadership, since a new leader immediately would face greater challenges.

However, if a contest were to be triggered, some would certainly encourage his candidacy, and he may be persuadable to give it another shot. A small group of centrist MPs are organizing a rearguard action to prevent Jenrick from being crowned leader in any eventual contest.

Conservative Shift and Political Calculations

An influential insider warned how momentum favors right-wingers within and beyond the party, citing figures such as Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “It is a chance for James given his experience and membership connections, and some want to stop Robert at any costs.”

“Quite a lot of minds are on the need for a pact with the rival party eventually. Recent parliamentary divisions regarding social issues there was a lot of ‘we need to kick the people of dissenters while Reform privately suggests Liberal Democrat you’d have to get rid of’. This advantages in Robert’s favour a bit.”

However, another added: “The outcome remains uncertain. A competitive race involving multiple candidates – other prominent figures. The assumption that conservatives consistently secure membership support is not necessarily the case.”