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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers rising together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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