Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.